Standard Chartered GBA Business Confidence Indices reveal steady business sentiment amid persistent external uncertainties

HONG KONG, Jan 29, 2026 - ( JCN Newswire ) - Standard Chartered and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) jointly released the latest Standard Chartered Greater Bay Area Business Confidence Index (GBAI), which revealed the business sentiment for most companies in the Greater Bay Area (GBA) remained steady amid persistent external uncertainties in Q4-2025.

Following a rebound in the previous quarter, the GBAI indices showed a moderate quarter-on-quarter retreat in the fourth quarter of 2025. This has been seen as the result of diminishing returns from front-loading activities, as well as from a more cautious approach to investment, financing, and capacity utilisation amid ongoing external uncertainties.

The 'current performance' index for business activity in Q4 retreated to 50.3 from 54.7 in the previous quarter, while the 'expectations' index dropped to 51 from 55.7. Despite the drop, both indices remained in expansionary territory, indicating that GBA businesses still maintained a broadly positive outlook.

Turning to the sub-indices, a mixed picture emerged for both 'current performance' and 'expectations' for the quarter overall. More specifically, with regard to 'current performance', the 'new orders', 'fixed asset investment', and 'profit' sub-indices all fell below the 50 threshold. This, however, was seen as a correction following the end of the front-loading process in earlier quarters. Subdued growth in loans and fixed-asset investment in the Chinese Mainland also contributed to this slight downward trend.

On the contrary, the 'expectations' remained relatively positive, with sub-indices for 'production/sales', 'new orders' and 'profits' all staying in expansionary territory in the fourth quarter last year. Taken together, these upbeat outcomes suggest a strong likelihood that robust demand will persist through the first quarter of 2026 and beyond.

In terms of individual GBA city evaluations, Hong Kong's readings were well above the survey average. This confirmed that the city's economic rebound remained very much on course at year-end, with the 'current performance' sub-index up 5.7 points to 57.9 and its 'expectations' reading up 1.8 points to 55.4. Overall, this sustained recovery in growth momentum was attributed to the city's 'professional services' and 'retail/wholesale' sectors.

Wing Chu, Deputy Director of Research, HKTDC, said: 'Following the extension of the trade truce between the US and China, business sentiment in Hong Kong continued to improve, allowing the city to outperform its peer cities across the GBA. This strength stands in contrast to the broader moderation seen in the overall GBA indices amid persistent external uncertainties. This recovery momentum in Hong Kong is expected to remain intact, supported by buoyant business activities and solid performance of the professional services sector - one of the key factors that underscore the city's solid recovery trajectory. The HKTDC will continue to proactively support GBA enterprises in leveraging Hong Kong's professional services to 'go global' and capitalise on opportunities in emerging markets, including those in the Middle East.'

To gain a better understanding of the broader aspirations of GBA businesses, the survey also examined their interest in expanding into the Middle East. Encouragingly, over half of respondents (54.8%) expressed interest in expanding into the Middle East, with the UAE (53.9%) and Saudi Arabia (53.2%) selected as the top two priority markets.

Digging deeper into these findings, among companies that have already started or are interested in expanding into the Middle East, nearly 60% were engaged in trading/ distribution activities. This was followed by manufacturing (42.7%) and logistics/ storage (28.3%).

Despite widespread optimism about emerging opportunities in the Middle East, many GBA businesses were also aware that they faced several challenges in ensuring success. Overall, the top three concerns here were: 'lack of understanding of local laws and regulations' (50.4%), 'opaque local regulatory environment and restrictions on foreign investment' (43.1%) and 'cultural and business differences' (42%).

Crucially, in order to help manage such challenges, some 99.2% of respondents saw Hong Kong's worldclass services as set to play pivotal roles in ensuring the success of their Middle East expansion plans. Particular emphasis was placed on the decisive contribution of the city's professional services sector, especially in successfully navigating local regulatory and compliance requirements.

Hunter Chan, Economist, Greater China, Standard Chartered, said: 'With increasingly complex geopolitical risks, global corporates not only actively diversify their supply chains but also explore new markets in recent years, thereby giving rise to numerous emerging trade corridors. The thematic survey found that the GBA corporates are interested in entering the Middle East, which aligns with Hong Kong Government's policy focus to set up the 'GoGlobal Task Force' to leverage Hong Kong's advantages as a 'go global' platform, and deepen economic ties with the Middle East. The survey also found that almost all respondents indicated that Hong Kong services are needed to support expansion into the Middle East and to address the challenges posed by local regulations and cultural differences. With its advantage in professional services, Hong Kong can further leverage its unique position as a 'super-connector', becoming a springboard for enterprises to develop overseas markets.'

About the GBAI

The GBAI is the first forward-looking quarterly survey in the market that examines business sentiment and synergistic effects across cities and industries in the GBA. It is compiled from a survey of more than 1,000 companies in the GBA across the manufacturing and trading, retail and wholesale, financial services, professional services, and innovation and technology sectors. The index enables investors and businesses to better understand the current business climate, gauge future performance prospects and formulate their market strategies for the GBA.

Related materials

Standard Chartered GBA Business Confidence Index Report:
https://www.sc.com/hk/gba/gba-index-report/

HKTDC Research: https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjIzMTk3MzQwOA

Media enquiries

Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Limited
Corporate Affairs Department
Flora Chiu, Tel: +852 3843 2285, Email: flora.chiu@sc.com

HKTDC Communications & Public Affairs Department
Katy Wong, Tel: +852 2584 4524, Email: katy.ky.wong@hktdc.org
Clayton Lauw, Tel: +852 2584 4472, Email: clayton.y.lauw@hktdc.org

About Standard Chartered

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Standard Chartered incorporated its Hong Kong business on 1 July 2004, and now operates as a licensed bank in Hong Kong under the name of Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Standard Chartered PLC. Standard Chartered PLC is listed on the London and Hong Kong stock exchanges. For more stories and expert opinions please visit Insights at sc.com. Follow Standard Chartered on X, LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook.

About HKTDC

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) is a statutory body established in 1966 to promote, assist and develop Hong Kong's trade. With over 50 offices globally, including 13 in Mainland China, the HKTDC promotes Hong Kong as a two-way global investment and business hub. The HKTDC organises international exhibitions, conferences and business missions to create business opportunities for companies, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), in the mainland and international markets. The HKTDC also provides up-to-date market insights and product information via research reports and digital news channels. For more information, please visit: www.hktdc.com/aboutus.