Standard Chartered GBA Business Confidence Indices highlight resilience of GBA corporates despite Middle East uncertainties

HONG KONG, Apr 27, 2026 - ( JCN Newswire ) - Standard Chartered and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) jointly released the latest Standard Chartered Greater Bay Area Business Confidence Index (GBAI), revealing that business sentiment among companies in the Greater Bay Area (GBA) remained stable in the first quarter of 2026 despite ongoing geopolitical and trade headwinds, notably oil price shocks and continued repercussions from the Middle East conflict.

Maintaining Momentum Amid Headwinds

The Q1 findings largely captured activity and business sentiment since the Middle East conflict began in late February, which has remained highly uncertain and weighed on overall business and market sentiment.

Despite a reduced appetite for expansion amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties, business sentiment remained steady across the GBA. The 'current performance' index for business activity in Q1 edged down marginally to 49.9 from 50.3 in the previous quarter, while the 'expectation' index moderated to 50.4 from 51. Both indices hovered around the 50-neutral mark, indicating GBA corporates' resilience, supported by favourable policies announced by the Chinese Government aimed at boosting the domestic economy, which in turn would partially offset the fallout of the Middle East conflict.

The 'current performance' index came down mainly driven by 'raw material inventory', 'fixed asset investment' and 'financing scale'. The latter two readings were believed to reflect more cautious sentiment among businesses in light of the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, 'production/ sales', 'prices of finished goods/ services' and 'profits' all experienced quarter-on-quarter expansion.

The 'expectations' index remained modestly positive, despite heightened external uncertainties. 'New orders' held steady at 51.5, while 'prices of finished good/ services' rose to 58.5. However, 'profits' fell below the 50-watershed level, implying surveyed companies did not view price increases as sufficient to offset a likely rise in energy and material costs.

Hong Kong to Sustain a Stillsolid Growth Pace

By city, Hong Kong is expected to maintain a solid performance going forward. Although both the 'current' and 'expectation' sub-indices edged down to 52.7, these readings still comfortably stayed in expansionary territory, supported by improvements in 'financial services' and 'innovation and technology' sectors.

Tommy Wu, Senior Economist, Greater China and North Asia, Standard Chartered, said: 'In addition to the initial impact of surging global energy and freight costs, there are concerns about second-round impacts, such as higher input costs and weaker global demand. This is aligned with the latest reading, which shows a 2.3-point decline in 'new export orders' to 47.5 for 'current performance', indicating a more cautious outlook for export demand. With the prolonged Middle East conflict, we anticipate global energy prices to be higher for longer and the second-round effects to become more visible in the coming months. These will likely weigh on business sentiment and appetite on making fixed investment. Nevertheless, Hong Kong has once again demonstrated its resilience amid market turbulence, and such resilience is expected to attract more global capital into HKD and Renminbi assets as safe-haven allocation.'

Demand-boosting Measures Favour GBA Businesses

The survey also investigated the impacts of a series of supportive policies from the Chinese government aimed at stimulating domestic demand in its thematic section. Among the new policy measures introduced by the Ministry of Finance in January, most respondents cited 'loan interest subsidies for small, medium and micro-sized enterprises' (38.4%), 'large-scale equipment upgrade subsidies' (36.9%) and 'consumer goods trade-in subsidies' (31.7%) as the top domestic demand-boosting policies likely to have the most positive impact on their business.

Wing Chu, Deputy Director of Research, HKTDC, said: 'Demandboosting stimulus is generating tangible benefits for GBA companies, helping to cushion external challenges amid the Middle East conflict. Targeted support, including loan interest subsidies, alongside measures aimed at stimulating consumer spending, is underpinning demand and supporting business activity across the GBA. Overall, policyled demand support continues to serve as a meaningful tailwind for GBA businesses. While cost pressures and market competition remain key concerns, respondents are considering stepping up investment in talent and market promotion to sustain further business growth.'

While many respondents believe stimulative policies could benefit their businesses by boosting online sales (36.6%) and reducing operating costs (33.8%), challenges faced by GBA corporates remain. Specifically, 54.9% of respondents identified labour costs as the biggest pressure point for their businesses, followed by rental costs (41.7%) and market competition (33.3%). Zooming into Hong Kong respondents, market competition was viewed as a more pressing challenge than rental costs, likely due to the increase in cross-border travel and change in consumption behaviours in recent years. In these circumstances, 38.7% would prioritise their investment in talent recruitment, followed by market promotion (38.1%) and personnel training (36.7%).

About the GBAI

The GBAI is the first forward-looking quarterly survey in the market that looks at the business sentiment and synergistic effects in cities and industries across the GBA. It is compiled based on a survey of more than 1,000 companies in the GBA covering the manufacturing and trading, retail and wholesale, financial services, professional services and innovation and technology sectors. The index enables investors and businesses to better understand the current business climate, gauge future performance prospects and formulate their market strategies for the GBA.

Related materials

Standard Chartered GBA Business Confidence Index Report: https://www.sc.com/hk/gba/gba-index-report/

HKTDC Research: https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjMwNjM2MTgxMQ

Report and photos download: https://bit.ly/4u3izEM

Wing Chu, Deputy Director of Research, HKTDC (right), and Tommy Wu, Senior Economist, Greater China and North Asia, Standard Chartered (left), announced the latest GBA Business Confidence Index (GBAI) on 27 April 2026.

Media enquiries

Corporate Affairs Department
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Communications & Public Affairs Department
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Clayton Lauw Tel: (852) 2584 4472 Email: clayton.y.lauw@hktdc.org

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About HKTDC

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) celebrates its 60th anniversary this year. The HKTDC is a statutory body established in 1966 to promote, assist and develop Hong Kong's trade. With over 50 offices globally, including 13 in the Chinese Mainland, the HKTDC promotes Hong Kong as a two-way global investment and business hub. The HKTDC organises international exhibitions, conferences and business missions to create business opportunities for companies, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), in the mainland and international markets. The HKTDC also provides up-to-date market insights and product information via research reports and digital news channels. For more information, please visit: www.hktdc.com/aboutus. Follow us on @hktdc and LinkedIn